U.S. House Forecast Update

Nate Silver's latest forecast gives the Democrats only a 35% chance of holding their majority in the House.

Republicans are assigned a 65 percent chance of taking over the House by our forecasting model, up slightly from 62 percent last week. They are projected to control 224 House seats in the new Congress, up a single seat from 223 last week; this would imply a gain of 45 seats from the 179 they have now (counting one vacant seat most recently held by a Republican member). Substantially larger — or smaller — gains are possible, however.